The Big Questions on Roger Federer Skipping Roland Garros

-By Trenton Jocz
-Was this always the plan?
No one knows but my guess is yes, for one reason. Yes, Rafa is the massive favorite for Paris, but he's the only favorite right now. I think if Roger was ever serious about RG, he'd have waited to see if Rafa self-destructed in Rome (I see no reason why he's playing when he's such a big favorite for La Decima). Nadal has overplayed himself before and Fed had until next Friday to withdraw. If something were to happen to Rafa (God forbid), Roger might be the favorite, which makes me think he knew he didn't have a great chance whether Rafa was there or not.
Nadal playing Rome and Fed calling it a day on May 15th seems more indicative for Fed's thought process than Rafa establishing himself by winning MC/Barca/Madrid.

-How does this change the tournament?
Federer was a top 5 contender, more threatening than the Thiem/Goffin types IMO, but he was an all-or-nothing type. We'll just never know if Fed could have reached the second week or lost early to a half-decent clay courter and triggered "oh, we should have seen this loss coming" reactions.
The main thing it does is makes the draw cleaner. Aside from Thiem (a 5-8 guy) and Goffin (probably a 9-12 seed), the draws shouldn't really matter if the top 4 guys are in form. However, much like the last couple clay draws, a worst case scenario could provide an ugly Murray/Wawrinka/Raonic/Cilic top half and a loaded Djokovic/Nadal/Thiem/Nishikori/Goffin bottom half. (BTW, feel free to swap Marin and Kei based on form/health)

--How will this affect Federer's Wimbledon seeding?
If you'll recall, Wimbledon uses their unique seeding formula, which gives Federer a big boost. Fed is 5th in the rankings right now, but he's neck and neck with Novak Djokovic for the 2 seed at Wimby. Now, if Djokovic merely gets a semifinal showing at RG (or a Rome SF+Paris 4R, you get the idea), Fed can't get #2. But if he plays Andy Murray in the SF, he's owned that matchup since Murray's back surgery and would have likely played him in the final anyway.
Federer might slip to #4 depending on Rafa's results at Rome and RG, but 3 and 4 are the same. No normal circumstance will boot Fed out of the top 4 for Wimbledon.

-How does affect year-end #1?
Who knows at this point, but it most helps Murray and Djokovic, as if Nadal fails to win RG and one of them does, it's basically a 3 man race despite the results to date.

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